“The DFW real estate market is expected to remain stable over the next 1-2 years, with steady demand supported by job growth and wage increases. However, the impact of higher mortgage rates could temper some of the enthusiasm seen in recent years.” - Logan Hassinger

Understanding DFW Real Estate Trends and Economic Indicators (2018-2024 YTD)

The Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) real estate market has seen notable changes over the past several years. Whether you're a buyer or a seller, understanding these trends is crucial. Here’s a detailed look at the key data points and visual trends in active listings, average sales prices, and days on market from 2018 to 2024 year-to-date (YTD), along with a forecast for the next 1-2 years.

The Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) real estate market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past several years. When comparing today's market to pre-COVID data, several metrics reveal promising trends, while others highlight the evolving landscape.

Active Listings: One of the most striking changes is the substantial increase in active listings. In 2018, the DFW market had around 24,000 active listings. By 2024, this number has surged to approximately 38,759 listings. This significant rise indicates a recovering market with more options available for buyers, reflecting a shift towards balancing the previously high demand with increased supply.

Average Sales Prices: Average sales prices have also shown considerable growth. In Dallas, prices have escalated from $285,000 in 2018 to $513,563 in 2024 YTD. Fort Worth has seen a similar trend, with prices rising from $270,000 to $340,000 in the same period. This upward trajectory in prices underscores the continued demand and attractiveness of the DFW area, despite economic challenges.

Days on Market: The time homes spend on the market has generally decreased, indicating quicker sales and a competitive environment. In Dallas, the average days on market dropped from 40 days in 2018 to 31 days in 2024 YTD. Fort Worth experienced a similar trend, with a decrease from 42 days to 34 days. This reduction in selling time points to a robust market where properties are quickly snapped up by eager buyers.

Overall, while the increase in active listings is a notable change, the rise in average sales prices and the decrease in days on market suggest that the DFW real estate market remains vibrant and attractive. Buyers now have more options to choose from, and sellers benefit from relatively fast sales and strong price growth. These metrics paint a picture of a resilient market adapting to new conditions post-pandemic, with continued growth and opportunity for both buyers and sellers.

Looking Ahead: Forecast for the Next 1-2 Years

Predicting the real estate market is inherently challenging and should be approached with caution. Each individual should make their decision based on their unique circumstances. However, we can look at several key economic indicators to provide some foresight.

Interest Rates and Mortgage Rates

Interest rates are a significant factor influencing the real estate market. As of 2024, the Federal Reserve has indicated a steady approach to interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which has shown signs of easing but remains a concern. Mortgage interest rates, in particular, have a direct impact on the housing market. Higher mortgage rates increase the cost of borrowing, which can dampen demand for homes.

In 2024, the average mortgage interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in Texas is around 6.5%, up from approximately 5.0% in 2023. This rise in mortgage rates can lead to higher monthly payments for homebuyers, potentially reducing affordability and slowing down the market. However, it can also mean more stability and fewer speculative buyers, which might help in balancing the market dynamics.

Employment and Wage Growth

The Texas economy continues to show robust employment growth, outpacing the national average. The Dallas Fed projects a 2.4% increase in job growth for 2024. Wage growth remains elevated but is expected to moderate from 5.6% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2024. This combination of steady job growth and moderating wage increases supports a healthy housing market, though not at the breakneck speed seen in recent years.

Inflation and Savings Rates

Inflation in Texas has shown signs of easing, with the Texas Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 4.8% in early 2024, down from higher levels in 2023. This easing inflationary pressure could stabilize housing prices. Savings rates, influenced by economic conditions and consumer confidence, remain a crucial factor in determining buyers' ability to afford down payments and mortgage costs.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate in Texas has remained relatively stable, around 4.0%, which is slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels but still indicative of a strong labor market. This stability in employment supports sustained demand in the housing market.

Conclusion

The DFW real estate market is expected to remain stable over the next 1-2 years, with steady demand supported by job growth and wage increases. However, the impact of higher interest and mortgage rates could temper some of the enthusiasm seen in recent years. Each city and neighborhood will experience these trends differently, underscoring the importance of localized market knowledge. As always, personal circumstances should guide real estate decisions, and consulting with a real estate professional can provide valuable insights tailored to your specific situation.

Stay informed and make decisions that best suit your needs. For personalized advice and more detailed market insights, feel free to contact us.

The data presented in this blog post is derived from various reputable sources to ensure accuracy and reliability. Below are the citations for the real estate trends and economic indicators discussed:

1. Dallas/Fort Worth Real Estate Trends (2018-2024 YTD):

   • Active Listings, Average Sales Prices, and Days on Market:

     • Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University

     • National Association of Realtors (NAR)

     • Dallas Business Journal

     • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Dallas Fed)​ (Dallas Fed)​​ (Dallas Fed)​

2. Texas Economic Data (2018-2024 YTD):

   • Mortgage Interest Rates, Wage Growth, Inflation, Unemployment Rate, and Job Growth:

     • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Dallas Fed)

     • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

     • Texas Workforce Commission​ (Dallas Fed)​​ (Dallas Fed)